Weekly Wrap Up

A lot of action transpired during the week. However I did not have much to say throughout the week. Felt some pain on my mining stocks, but thankfully I was hedged with some shorts in names like IWM,CCI,ORCL. My largest long position is AU and I did not sell any last week, nor did I add to the position. AU's weekly chart is showing price is at decent area of longer term support where buyers have appeared in the past. Plus it very over sold, but we all know over sold can become even more over sold.
AU's long term trend seems to be intact still. I will be watching the $41 area as a key inflection point for the bounce that is on its way.

As for the general market there was considerable technical damage done. We must now repair that damage before a move higher ensues, in my opinion. I will be watching for accumulation and follow through.
There are particular patterns I am scanning for on the short side, if this market is toast, then they will start appearing everywhere and I will make them available on this site, when they occur. These patterns are highly reliable and predictable, in the past anyway.

I took a small long position in WBD at the 20 week m.a.(which is the blue line). I have been patiently waiting for a good entry point on WBD. My stop will be around the tail of the weekly chart candle stick.

Random Musing

I was pontificating the recent market action and thought I would post my musing.
Gold has been a leader in the market since Nov 08 when it bottomed before the indices did. Since then the two have pretty much moved in tandem, but gold usually bottoms and tops before the indices do. Recent action has gold topping well before the indices, as seen in the accompanying chart. When I say topping I do not mean bull market top, but rather profit taking, which is healthy action. Could it be something more sinister? Sure it could, but I think the action in the charts would pretty much telegraph that in plenty of time to prepare ourselves for such an event. Plus seasonality is on our side at the moment.
Now that gold has made a substantial correction and is in the process of bottoming in my opinion. I believe the indices are in catch up mode and once this process of catch up is completed the prevailing uptrend will resume. What level would I expect $SPX to hit for this process to have climaxed? I presume right around 1090-1100, but markets do like to test the extreme's and the weak. While the $SPX is testing or nearing the mentioned levels. I would expect gold to be shaping up the right side of its base in preparation for a move to new highs. Which in turn will give further indication it is safe to initiate positions on the long side again in the indices and individual stocks in other sectors. At the point gold and the miners are nearing new highs I will probably exit most (90%) of my gold plays and evaluate the current situation at that time.
In the accompanying chart when I say gold I am using the ETF proxy for gold which is GLD and is the solid back line. This chart just provides illustration of the price performance between GLD and $SPX.

AU

I bought a substantial amount of AU yesterday at its 10 month m.a.. The chart posted is a monthly view. For me this is great entry point and we will see how it play's out. I have been waiting patiently for price to test that moving average. Notice during the uptrend since Nov 08 to present anytime price hit the 10 month (green line), it was a pretty good time to enter and be patient. Also I notice how the 20 month m.a. (blue line) has just turned up in Nov 09, so this signals strength to me and that the current trend should have some more time and juice left in it.
I know the dollar chart looks problematic for precious metals at the moment. However the DXY is still below its 200 day m.a.. This dollar strength move should coincide perfectly with gold and miners hitting their respective low's as the dollar tops out at its 200 day. Anyhow there is no guarantee that this inverse relationship has to remain as it has been.
If this happens to be an incorrect assessment, then my entry on AU is at a low risk, high reward entry area and my losses should be minimal.
I will be watching it closely and intently.

RINO

Im not much of a momentum stock trader, but I think its worth mentioning that RINO filled its gap. I think if it shows strength for the next few days it will be worthy of a probe on the long side. My mental stop would be below $24.25, but price would need to stay below that level for a few days and show continued weakness. Coincidentally the 90 day s.m.a currently resides @ $24.59, therefore there should be plenty of support around my mentioned levels. Which is why my exit strategy will be based on action and not price. I will be monitoring intra day charts closely for clue's when price is around my mentioned levels.
As for an exit price $31.00 and higher seems to be a good point to take half of the probe position off and let the rest ride and set the stop after the first target is achieved.

NIHD

DAILY CHART

WEEKLY CHART

MONTHLY CHART

Posting daily, weekly and monthly charts for your perusal. I think the near term target is $47. $47 is where the 200 week moving average resides and the 50 month average is at that level as well. In my eye's this is a magnet trade.
If you look at the monthly chart there is not much resistance. The .382 Fib is at $40.73 after that I believe its clear shot to $47. I am just waiting for a decent pull back to the 30 day e.m.a or a stochastic's reading below 15. Hopefully price is around the 30 day or 50 day when this stochastic reading occurs. This will validate my entry and analysis.

MWW

Not the kind of leader I typically like to trade, but none the less it does have a well defined channel. I am not in it at the moment, but waiting for a test of the lower channel to initiate a position.

CLF, the one that got away for now

DAILY CHART

WEEKLY CHART


Every time I look at this chart, I am amazed that I have not entered it on the long side YET!! CLF is testing the upper part of its clearly defined channel on the daily chart, which is marked in orange.
Then if we have a look at its weekly chart there is a gap between $58.26 and $57.10 that it is gunning for and I believe it will make it there. I just hope it gives me one more chance to get in at the lower part of its daily trend channel before it hits that target.
Hopefully it will be around $49 when it tests the bottom part of its channel and if my target is achieved, then its a nice +10% gain, in what should be a short holding time, maybe a few weeks.

Profit taking on jobs data

Took my profit on BBBY at the open today. Nice 1 day trade. Not much more to say other than I will be monitoring it for entry's. I feel about it today as I did in yesterday's post.
Also took half my short trade off yesterday on ORCL at the 20 day s.m.a. (which is the blue line). I will be looking for $23.77 or lower to exit remaining position, or getting stopped out at my initial entry price.

Good Morning BBBY

A short post on a quick trade I took this a.m. I entered on the short side. I took this trade right at the open (something I rarely do), the chart posted is a weekly view.
Now maybe they (institution's) will be assessing the fundamental's on this stock and feel its worth more than it has been at its peaks during the past 7 years and will break it out.
However the chart show's a clear level which the seller's seem to be comfortable booking profit's at and feel it's fully valued.

GG, AU, IAG

Wanted to show a chart of GG. I really like the action at the bottom of it's trend channel. Also MACD has crossed over which has been a very reliable intermediate time frame signal for buying since 2009. AU has a very similar pattern developing as well. IAG is simply testing a its trend line and previous break out area. Actually the whole sector is behaving nicely and in unison, which is very positive.
I own GG, AU, IAG.

TEVA AGAIN

I have been harping on about TEVA for many months now. Look back to older posts on this blog and I have given numerous heads up as well on other blog's. I will be looking to take some off the table in the $60's. TEVA is and has been a core holding for me, so I take profits when warranted, this allows me to add to my position at strategic points.
I do believe it should be on any long term investor's watch list. However for those of you who are looking for a LONG TERM entry point, now is not that point. For the nimble traders it is very viable to play the current strength.
I will post a monthly chart once again. I must say that is one nice long term up trending channel, but it is near the top of its channel, plus MACD and RSI are nearing their respective overbought area's. I have highlighted the chart with buy and sell areas for the long term investor.
Adding to the position once you get in at your desired long term entry point is a discussion I will talk about later, but exponentially increases your gains.