MSTR

MSTR DAILY

MSTR WEEKLY


No doubt this is a dangerous stock to short, but I did let me explain why.
First lets look at a weekly chart. The main thing that jumps out at me is MACD, its crossed over in a big way and momentum should carry it lower. Just as it has in the past. Look at past instances when MACD was crossed over like it is now. I will be looking to cover when MACD nears the zero line. Also its 20 week (blue line) has acted as resistance. As it has in the past when the momentum was on the sell side.

Next lets look at the daily chart. I see a head and shoulder formation along with a diamond pattern, pretty negative stuff indeed.

I must say I would much rather own this equity, but I must adhere to what I see. My position size is small while Im short. This stock can gap up or down 20 bucks, so strict adherence to stops must be obeyed.

Weekly Revision

I took off my pair trade in UPS/FDX. I took my profit on the long side in UPS, exactly where my previous post showed. I am still short FDX though, but it is on a tight leash. Any move above last weeks high and I will probably cover. All in all the pair trade is profitable as of the close on Friday. If FDX continues to move lower then it will be even sweeter.
I also took off my pair trade in NVLS/XLNX. I took my profit on NVLS and I am still short XLNX.
A few other observations or stocks to take notice of. I normally have a core holding in TEVA but I sold when it went above $60 and its killing me. I always harp about what a great stock TEVA is (check previous posts) technically and fundamentally and I took myself completely out of it. Also another stock of note is CELG I will be looking to get back in to that on any good weakness.

Watching and waiting, FFIV, BCSI, RVBD, TCK, OTEX, LLL, HSP.

Current positions,
Short- XLNX, ALTR, ASML, GG, IWM, KSU, FDX.
LONG- DB, UUP, C

ALTR Semiconductor

ALTR WEEKLY

I wanted to post a chart of ALTR. I shorted ALTR on Thurs,Fri. This is a trade I will be patient with it. I will need to see a huge pop above the resistance line marked on the chart to make me cover and if I have to cover my loss will be negligible because of my entry points. Otherwise I will be sitting on my hands. I just dont see a lot of upside left in it. The risk/reward trade favors the short side.

Couple of moves

I went short BBBY again today. See prior post regarding BBBY analysis.
I also went long DB today. I am posting a weekly chart of DB.
Another pair trade I have on at the moment is long NVLS and short XLNX.

Pair Trade

UPS WEEKLY

UPS MONTHLY

FDX MONTHLY

FDX WEEKLY




I am currently long UPS and short FDX. I know sectors move unison, but I feel money will be flowing into undervalued assets and I believe UPS is undervalued compared to FDX. Plus I think UPS has more room to run on the upside. Here are their weekly and monthly charts. FDX is currently bumping up against long term moving averages, while UPS still has a bit to go before hitting its same long term moving average's.

NG

NG WEEKLY

I just wanted to point out this chart for my blog readers. Currently its testing it upper portion of its trend channel, so there is not much to do for me at the moment. As I see too much strength for me to short it. Therefore, I will be patiently waiting for a test of the lower channel to get long. Also, volume characteristics are correlating well with price during its current up trend.

XLNX

A took a smallish short position today. XLNX is in a nice up trend, so this trade is from watching the tape on it and it feels heavy. Im not looking for a big down move, but a buck or more will do for me.
The lateral blue lines on the posted daily chart are to illustrate the layers of resistance on the horizon for XLNX. I plan to short it at each level for a quick swing trade. Also I will get long at the 30 day moving average and sell at the lateral blue resistance lines.

What Can Brown Do For You

UPS DAILY

I went long UPS yesterday and the day before. Im looking for it to make new 52 week highs, at that point I plan on exiting most of the position.

Leaders and Strength

The market action this past week was pretty good. My longs clearly out performed my shorts, but I am more long than short about 70-30. Leaders acted very strong this past week, which should be a harbinger for higher highs in the coming weeks. I bought some NSC on Friday as a hedge against my KSU short.
Current holdings,
Longs AU,DOW,NSC,SYT
Shorts KSU,IWM,SA


I wanted post some names of leaders and strong stocks in this market, so here they are. I am looking to get long some of these names again.

FFIV
TEVA
WLT
CMP
CLF
TEVA
KOF
HSNI
PFF
SYT
RVBD
BCSI
CELG
LLL
RTN
NOC
BHP
OTEX

Miners and More

DOW 60 MINUTE CHART


I sold my GOLD long today way above my target, which was the 50 day, see prior post.
I had to sell it based on the larger trend, which is down based on my weekly MACD thesis. As I stated in a prior post any daily MACD cross over up while weekly MACD is crossed over down should be sold into strength. Therefore I had to adhere to my strategy.
I did add to AU yesterday as I believe this equity will also test its 50 day or higher. Most of the sector has already done so, this one will follow suit. AU tends to move last in the sector for some reason. Again the larger dominant trend must be recognized, so my entry yesterday is for a shorter time period.
I shorted XRT this will be on a tight leash.
I bought DOW today on a trend line break in my eyes. This is a short term trade.
I am still short KSU, but I did buy NSC a few days ago on the long side for a scalp. Sorry I did not have time to post it due to the little ones arrival. My post should be more regular again as things have got back to normal in the household.
I am watching FDX for non confirmation of its recent daily strength. As weekly MACD is crossed over down. Remember I keep it simple and stick to my strategy's and watch for non confirmations on a weekly time frame. I always try to be on the dominant side of the trend as most of my losers come when I forget this simple rule and know all weekly MACD's are crossed over down for the major indices at the moment. A side note IWM is non confirming its daily chart strength on a weekly time frame. I will be monitoring it closely.