DRI Profit

Sold half my position when stock was @ 34.50.

DRI

Shorted via puts when stock was @ 37.25$

NOC

Shorted at 42$. First chart is weekly, second is daily. Whole sector is very weak, just getting on the right side of the order flow, which is out.

MANT,CAI

Like both of these for shorts. Took a small position in MANT. Need a bounce in either name to get short. The whole sector is a great short and the order flow is on the sell side. Nothing will bounce enough to register a good short entry with a large position, hence the small positions.

SPY,DRI

SPY took smallish profit.
DRI took some profit on it, still have a position though.

Yesterday Part 2

What the fed did was not unexpected. They have been printing trillions of dollars for the past year and some. How are they going to make people borrow when they cant even service the debt they have.
They are trying to help the housing market, but bottom line is there is too much supply still and the only cure for that is TIME, you guessed it.
This will be the first real counter trend rally of this whole bear market. Dont get sucked into the false feelings of reprieve. Get out when you get the chance, because this market is going much lower in the future. Retail investors will get sucked in to the false sense of hope during this current counter trend rally and the supposed smart money, (which is obviously an oxymoron in my opinion) will keep trying to pick the bottoms, as they are now. Again it is just a counter trend rally and the first one at that, so be warned.
The S&P is trading at a 23 p/e. Bear market bottom p/e's are under 10.

Yesterday

What can I say. The dollar got weak with the FED news and market moves higher. The correlation between the dollar and the index's is remarkable, it is a inverse relationship, but a great way to trade the market. The dollar long term is in trouble. I keep harping this, so be prepared for it.
Still short SPY and CBRL added DRI short around 35$. Still no longs to get excited about. This is what is keeping me short. Looking for MCD at 56$ for a short.

SYT

Sold my other half to break even on the trade.

SYT

Sold half my position for a loss.

SPY

Shorted at 77 and 77.50. Targeting 72.50-72.00

Weekly recap

I have been getting questions regarding the market and stocks. Therefore I felt I better update my thoughts for those of you who wanted to know.
Yep, taking some pain on my AMT,CCI short, but not a whole lot, still have plenty of ammo if needed. Also I have profit in the bank from prior trade from these 2. I must say my patterns for these 2 are in jeopardy of being invalidated. If thats the case I will take my losses and move on, but not there yet.
SBAC, just initiated the short very small. Looking for $25 to go big, See previous post regarding SBAC chart.
CBRL, very short around $25. Will be watching for a weekly close below $24.20 next week otherwise I will take some losses and wait for next entry near $29. I love this chart for a short. I will be patient and any losses taken will be made back at higher levels I assure you.

Longs
DRYS, nothing much to say low risk, high reward trade. Will keep you guys up to date.
FXI, holding strong for now.
SYT, bought some and had to take a loss on half my position. Still holding some though on a short leash.

I had like 10 trades in a row that were all to the good side and then I went LONG SYT.
I will be looking to short SPY near 76.50 at 30dema and stoch should be above 90 as well. This will be a short term trade looking for $3 or 4$.
Again, I hear so much chatter about this being the bottom, I just dont see it. Price criteria is being met or close to it, but time criteria has not yet been met, in my mind. Everyone trying to pick the bottom and be a hero, where is the fear? All I know is that is a futile game. My indicators will tell me within 1 or 2 months that the market has bottomed, it has nailed the last 2 tops and bottom.
Yes if your time frame is 10 years or more adding equities at theses levels is very prudent, but buy in quarters. Some in the first quarter, then some in the next quarter, you get the point. I would be buying agricultural and conglomerates with alot of overseas exposure, as the dollar will be making new lows in the future.
On a further not I can not really find anything to get excite about on the long side. I am trying desperately, but to no avail and that is telling me something. Where is the leadership? I think when the next bull does start its going to be ag and construction stocks.
The likes of GVA,URS,FLR,ACM,JEC all look very promising and are forming some sort of bottom, but the process is not finished and thats all we need to know at the moment.
Any further queries you guys know how to reach me. Thanks again for all the nice emails. We will continue to be better than most everyone.

MCD SHORT

Notice the X's and the red line. Tons of resistance and macd has much further to go.

OIL and GOLD

Gold is at 950$ an ounce while oil is 40$ a barrel. You can buy 25 barrels of oil for 1 ounce of gold. This is the cheapest oil has ever been in history. On the other hand you can see how our money dollars have depreciated. Oil in dollars (paper) has risen 10 times. Meanwhile the ratio of oil and gold has decreased by 65%. The point is you can see gold really has value.

SYT

SYT, bought some for a short term trade, targeting 44-45

WATCH LIST

SHORTS
MCD,RTN,ATK,NOC,LLC,UTX

LONGS,
SYT,GOLD,MOO


I will post charts for these later to show what I see.

Portfolio

CBRL shorted more yesterday. Had covered three quaters of my position in the 21's on March 6. Shorted from 24.20 all the way to 24.75. Will post a chart with all entrys and exits for all of you.
Still short CCI,AMT.

Long DRYS,FXI

Dollar

Direction of stocks still predicated on dollar movement as I stated before. With the dollar shortage at the moment the trend seems to be higher for the dollar, but its near a curious level. Will be watching closely.

Sorry

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been real busy will try and make up for it today as the next few days are even more hectic.

WOW, WATCH THIS CLIP

I have been getting emails about the trader tax for some time now. I tried to refrain from the political side on this blog. Talk about arrogant and not in touch with the average citizen. This goes back to a earlier post about D.C. not being in touch with us.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/video-search/m/21948997/congressman-sounds-off-on-taxing-trades.htm#q=defazio

Current trading portfolio

Short
CBRL,CCI,AMT,GPC
Added to the CBRL short @ 24 yesterday via puts and stock, but I day traded the stock for a nice profit

Long, these are hedges for upside protection.
FXI,DRYS

FXY Profit

It has it my target, take most of the remaining position off the table. Leave a little for a homerun chance. See previous chart posting with FXY target.

DOLLAR VS DOW PART2

Dollar broke out and the S&P broke down. Until Dollar weakens index will not rise. This will be the relationship to watch going forward, it will be one of the signals telling us when the bear is done. Any pullback in the Dollar should equate to a bounce in stocks, but thats it. The Dollar is a seriously flawed currency and not to be bought for the long term. The current trend will reverse and the Dollar will make new lows in the future.

ATK PROFIT

I took profit on it for no reason other than it was a 8% gain in 3 days and I didnt want to be patient. The worst way to take profits. Anyhow I will be looking to enter the whole group short. RTN,NOC and ATK are my favorites.

CBRL, X MARKS THE SPOT