Firstly, I hear so much chatter of a bottom being made, so lets have a look at SPY monthly chart. I like this chart because it filters out all the noise and day to day volatility.
Notice the red demarcation lines. Very reliable signal it nailed the top of the last bull and the bottom of the last bear. Will it happen again? I believe yes, history is always repeated to a certain degree. Until it proves me wrong I will stick with it. Anyhow look at the x's on the chart this is where a cross over happened for my moving averages. Notice the height of the xover down on the chart and look at current xover down. Third graders could tell you the direction in the future months, to me its screaming LOWER. Are we due for a bounce? yes and it will be a prime opportunity to sell your longs or add short's if your adamant to hold on to your longs or be completely short with a minimal hedge for protection in case Osama Bin Laden is killed or captured. Also the last bear lasted 31 months before the xover up occurred. Where are we currently at 13 months. I believe this recession will be far more severe than the tech bubble, so plainly I do not think 13 months is going to do it. Yet another piece to the no bottom puzzle.
Also look to the oscillators and look at the green lines, notice where we are at in the current cycle compared to the last cycle.
Finally, bottoms are a function of price and time and have symmetry in many aspects. Have either criteria been met. I say no but we are closer to meeting that criteria for price as far as the time criteria it has just that time and hopefully you can see the symmetry I tried to show.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE. HAVING TECHNICAL ISSUES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON.
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