ORCL Short Term Trader On The Short Side

ORCL WEEKLY

ORCL DAILY

A quick look at a short term trade I took in ORCL yesterday on the short side. In my experience after gap ups and when you get the formation outlined in the blue lines, its a sucker move that almost always leads to a quick and abrupt correction down to the 30 or 50 day moving average in short order, which is where I will cover and go long. I am just pointing out formations that work well for me a high percentage of the time and it may seem counter intuitive based on recent action. None the less I am willing to stick to my high percentage set ups.

However I think ORCL will make a nice long play after the short term correction I believe is coming. I am posting two charts, daily and weekly. The weekly chart clearly shows a triple top break out, but first they must trap all the weak longs that bought on the daily chart's current formation believing the path is straight up without the subsequent correction that is coming before the sustained up trend truly begins.

GOLD STOCKS

Quick chart of $HUI Index, which is the gold bugs index. Notice the trend? The purple line is the 90 day moving average. Looks like the trend is still intact to my eyes. A few observations about the chart. All moving averages are still moving up. Higher highs and lows are still being made. The thing that will set off alarm bells for me is if the 90 day starts rolling over while price starts to break its trend channel. Until this happens the trend gets the benefit of the doubt. I do not care if the trend is up or down. As long as you are on the right side of the trend it becomes exponentially easier to make money.

Also look at AU, GG, IAG. Their charts are at their respective trend lines as well. I entered all of these and will be adding on confirmation the trend is resuming.

Of further note since 1977 January, February are historically very strong for gold.

AA

Well the expected move in AA started. I will take some profit near $15. I expect a pull back in the $ 15's and will enter again at good support.

SOLD CCI

Sold my CCI puts when stock was near 34.75

CCI

While the chart is very bullish. I took a short position around $36.30, just looking for 2-3$ down. Will buy at major support if indicators confirm.

AA

Bought AA yesterday and today on MACD xover up.

Still holding 1 ALL call

ALL

Bought more calls at 30.75 and will add to it at 30.20. Target is 33 or higher.

MT

Bought some MT calls Wed was unable to post it. Sold it Thurs while travelling, still have 1 call left.

AA

Bought some AA calls this a.m. at open. Look at weekly chart nice head and shoulders pattern.

Charts

I showed most recent trades in all the charts below. Most have exit targets except TEVA.

TEVA

Showing entry point on TEVA.

GDX Daily

Showing short entry and target.

GDX Weekly

Waiting to cover short at X and go long

AU Weekly

I started buying at the X. Notice the trendline.

Gold

Shorted more GDX @ 43.00 Friday. Was already short, took some profit on those positions. My target is $40.50 or lower and then I will go long.

Short GG looking for $37, shorted near $40. I will go long at $37 area

SLV short from around $16.60 ave price on options. Looking for $15 or lower and will enter on the long side there.

AU entered long on Friday @$39.25 and will add to it on any 4-10% dips below my entry.

I think you can see my strategy. Bottom line Gold is going higher and the above mentioned stocks will make new swing highs. Which from where I will cover my shorts and go long is a great risk/reward trade.

Registered

A Dow Theory buy signal registered today. Very bullish for the future. Will curtail shorts from now on. The buy signal maybe a short term sell signal as alot of energy has been used up.
Have alot of TEVA Mar calls and Jan 11 calls. Hope to see it hit 50d will be buying buy the boatload.
Also NSC calls purchased, 50 is my target which is Jan 6 high, which coincides with the $TRAN confirmation.
FLS is another bullish play of mine. I sold my options today but looking for pullback to get back in.
LFC is another fine looking long. Will post when I enter it.

CBRL puts going to expire far less than I purchased them. Will move on, that was a horrible trade for me. Have not had one of those for a long time.

My post's will be more regular again. I have been very busy at my restaraunt. Thanks to you who kept in touch by email. Will get back to the Norm.

TEVA

Bought March calls at open. Look at monthly chart fantastic looking. Will be buying Jan 2011 calls on any pullbacks.

Dow theory buy signal redux

I posted quit a while back about a DJI theory buy signal. Well the DJI took out its Jan 6 high and closed above that dates close as well. Now we need the transports to confirm and when/if it does I would suspect a pullback is in order as a lot of fuel and energy has been spent. The bull case will be made and it will take a few months to energize the markets, but once that is complete its on.
On the other hand we could get a glaring non confirmation and that would be the final nail in the coffin. I suspect they would try and keep prices high while they distribute the shares to the retailers, before everyone heads for the exit at the same time.

Diversification

I was emailing with a reader about diversification and I thought I should share my view on the matter.
I would not diversify just for the sake of being diversified. The only people it benefits is your money manager, it makes his/her MUM higher. (money under management)
Why let your money sit in a asset class that is dead or broken. The point is to make your money work smarter, so you dont have to work harder.
Now if you end up being diversified because your buying solid company's at discounts, because the market is willing to give them to you at discounts, then that is acceptable. However one must not get complacent and let your diversification take your eye off the ball.
That is how I approach my investments.

Dow theory buy signal

We can get one if DOW and DOW transports can close above JAN 06 2009 close. We will have to wait and see. Just making you aware of the possibility.

Out

GDX, I sold all my position just a few minutes ago. That was a nice trade profit wise and going according to plan almost to a T. I will be looking to go short GDX. I will let you know when I do. However I am still bullish on gold and gold miners. I plan to play both sides during the rise. My indicators on GDX are on fire at the moment, so I will take advantage of this. This move up to recent highs in GDX should also correspond with a top of some form in the market. That is why I shorted Q's at open today as well. My stop on the Q's $35.34

Relative Strength

Which do you want to own? GLD is GOLD ETF and USO is OIL ETF.

GDX

sold some more at open, also sold GG at open.
Climatic top being put in right now. The market is under distribution as the thing moves closer to 200d and its the first test as well. Enough said Im short but hedged with GDX, its nearing my 39 target where I will sell all longs.

More

GDX sold more at open, but thats all until 39 or higher.
IWM shorted at open above 51$
GG bought some 29.50$, its a component of GDX.

Sold

FXI was sold yesterday. GDX partial sold at open today. Still have most of that position.

GDX

Been buying it. Bought some yesterday right before close, but sold it now. Still have some from about a week ago. The momentum move should have started today. Should see 38 soon
LOW short and JPM

JOYG

This is a chart that illustrates a nice bottom formation. When I start go long this will be a top candidate. Near 20 is a great entry, in fact I will be waiting for my first entry at that price.

UPDATE

Sorry been fairly busy. Not much to add, still waiting for my indicators to reach their tops, which are marked by the X's. As I stated before this is the first counter trend rally. Please reference chart.
To answer the questions I am still short CBRL and will remain so. I am feeling the heat, but in time it will behave better for the shorts. Other than that I am pretty flat. Still long FXI and DBC. Once Stochastic gets above 80 Im short and all in.
I like SBAC short at 29 and SPY,QQQQ no numbers yet but I will post them when I enter.

QE

Finally a true counter trend rally. Longs should not get married to their idea that this is a bull market.
When Japan started QE they had a surplus, the individual had savings and had been saving for years. The U.S. on the other hand has none of those. The Nikkei rallied 19% when QE was announced then proceeded to lose value for the next 3 years, its ominous how things are acting in the U.S. at the moment.
I will post the top of this rally within a week or two when it happens.

DRI Profit

Sold half my position when stock was @ 34.50.

DRI

Shorted via puts when stock was @ 37.25$

NOC

Shorted at 42$. First chart is weekly, second is daily. Whole sector is very weak, just getting on the right side of the order flow, which is out.

MANT,CAI

Like both of these for shorts. Took a small position in MANT. Need a bounce in either name to get short. The whole sector is a great short and the order flow is on the sell side. Nothing will bounce enough to register a good short entry with a large position, hence the small positions.

SPY,DRI

SPY took smallish profit.
DRI took some profit on it, still have a position though.

Yesterday Part 2

What the fed did was not unexpected. They have been printing trillions of dollars for the past year and some. How are they going to make people borrow when they cant even service the debt they have.
They are trying to help the housing market, but bottom line is there is too much supply still and the only cure for that is TIME, you guessed it.
This will be the first real counter trend rally of this whole bear market. Dont get sucked into the false feelings of reprieve. Get out when you get the chance, because this market is going much lower in the future. Retail investors will get sucked in to the false sense of hope during this current counter trend rally and the supposed smart money, (which is obviously an oxymoron in my opinion) will keep trying to pick the bottoms, as they are now. Again it is just a counter trend rally and the first one at that, so be warned.
The S&P is trading at a 23 p/e. Bear market bottom p/e's are under 10.

Yesterday

What can I say. The dollar got weak with the FED news and market moves higher. The correlation between the dollar and the index's is remarkable, it is a inverse relationship, but a great way to trade the market. The dollar long term is in trouble. I keep harping this, so be prepared for it.
Still short SPY and CBRL added DRI short around 35$. Still no longs to get excited about. This is what is keeping me short. Looking for MCD at 56$ for a short.

SYT

Sold my other half to break even on the trade.

SYT

Sold half my position for a loss.

SPY

Shorted at 77 and 77.50. Targeting 72.50-72.00

Weekly recap

I have been getting questions regarding the market and stocks. Therefore I felt I better update my thoughts for those of you who wanted to know.
Yep, taking some pain on my AMT,CCI short, but not a whole lot, still have plenty of ammo if needed. Also I have profit in the bank from prior trade from these 2. I must say my patterns for these 2 are in jeopardy of being invalidated. If thats the case I will take my losses and move on, but not there yet.
SBAC, just initiated the short very small. Looking for $25 to go big, See previous post regarding SBAC chart.
CBRL, very short around $25. Will be watching for a weekly close below $24.20 next week otherwise I will take some losses and wait for next entry near $29. I love this chart for a short. I will be patient and any losses taken will be made back at higher levels I assure you.

Longs
DRYS, nothing much to say low risk, high reward trade. Will keep you guys up to date.
FXI, holding strong for now.
SYT, bought some and had to take a loss on half my position. Still holding some though on a short leash.

I had like 10 trades in a row that were all to the good side and then I went LONG SYT.
I will be looking to short SPY near 76.50 at 30dema and stoch should be above 90 as well. This will be a short term trade looking for $3 or 4$.
Again, I hear so much chatter about this being the bottom, I just dont see it. Price criteria is being met or close to it, but time criteria has not yet been met, in my mind. Everyone trying to pick the bottom and be a hero, where is the fear? All I know is that is a futile game. My indicators will tell me within 1 or 2 months that the market has bottomed, it has nailed the last 2 tops and bottom.
Yes if your time frame is 10 years or more adding equities at theses levels is very prudent, but buy in quarters. Some in the first quarter, then some in the next quarter, you get the point. I would be buying agricultural and conglomerates with alot of overseas exposure, as the dollar will be making new lows in the future.
On a further not I can not really find anything to get excite about on the long side. I am trying desperately, but to no avail and that is telling me something. Where is the leadership? I think when the next bull does start its going to be ag and construction stocks.
The likes of GVA,URS,FLR,ACM,JEC all look very promising and are forming some sort of bottom, but the process is not finished and thats all we need to know at the moment.
Any further queries you guys know how to reach me. Thanks again for all the nice emails. We will continue to be better than most everyone.

MCD SHORT

Notice the X's and the red line. Tons of resistance and macd has much further to go.

OIL and GOLD

Gold is at 950$ an ounce while oil is 40$ a barrel. You can buy 25 barrels of oil for 1 ounce of gold. This is the cheapest oil has ever been in history. On the other hand you can see how our money dollars have depreciated. Oil in dollars (paper) has risen 10 times. Meanwhile the ratio of oil and gold has decreased by 65%. The point is you can see gold really has value.

SYT

SYT, bought some for a short term trade, targeting 44-45

WATCH LIST

SHORTS
MCD,RTN,ATK,NOC,LLC,UTX

LONGS,
SYT,GOLD,MOO


I will post charts for these later to show what I see.

Portfolio

CBRL shorted more yesterday. Had covered three quaters of my position in the 21's on March 6. Shorted from 24.20 all the way to 24.75. Will post a chart with all entrys and exits for all of you.
Still short CCI,AMT.

Long DRYS,FXI

Dollar

Direction of stocks still predicated on dollar movement as I stated before. With the dollar shortage at the moment the trend seems to be higher for the dollar, but its near a curious level. Will be watching closely.

Sorry

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been real busy will try and make up for it today as the next few days are even more hectic.

WOW, WATCH THIS CLIP

I have been getting emails about the trader tax for some time now. I tried to refrain from the political side on this blog. Talk about arrogant and not in touch with the average citizen. This goes back to a earlier post about D.C. not being in touch with us.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/video-search/m/21948997/congressman-sounds-off-on-taxing-trades.htm#q=defazio

Current trading portfolio

Short
CBRL,CCI,AMT,GPC
Added to the CBRL short @ 24 yesterday via puts and stock, but I day traded the stock for a nice profit

Long, these are hedges for upside protection.
FXI,DRYS

FXY Profit

It has it my target, take most of the remaining position off the table. Leave a little for a homerun chance. See previous chart posting with FXY target.

DOLLAR VS DOW PART2

Dollar broke out and the S&P broke down. Until Dollar weakens index will not rise. This will be the relationship to watch going forward, it will be one of the signals telling us when the bear is done. Any pullback in the Dollar should equate to a bounce in stocks, but thats it. The Dollar is a seriously flawed currency and not to be bought for the long term. The current trend will reverse and the Dollar will make new lows in the future.

ATK PROFIT

I took profit on it for no reason other than it was a 8% gain in 3 days and I didnt want to be patient. The worst way to take profits. Anyhow I will be looking to enter the whole group short. RTN,NOC and ATK are my favorites.

CBRL, X MARKS THE SPOT

FXY Part 2

I would take half my position off, nearly at target. That was quick. I didnt take the trade, I know a few of you did and thanks for the kind emails.

FXY

Was asked about the technicals on FXY. Looks toppy and fundamentally over valued I believe. Japans economy is hurting.

EUR/JPY

Watch this cross trade as it moves lower so has the market and it has been this way for the past year and a half.

GOLD

GLD is the ETF that tracks gold. This is one position that you can be long and be comfortable for the next year the trend is going to be up, it will back and fill along the way but the trend is your friend here. Let the trend do the heavy lifting.
With all currencys likely to be under pressure this is even more incentive for GLD to move higher. As governments, institutions will likely put fresh capital to work in this precious metal and avoid currencys. Actually it was reported that Russia started buying gold as it had been promising. Its not that the dollar is strong, its all other currencys are very weak and will continue to be so. The dollar rally will eventually run its course and make new lows in the future.
I will be buying GLD on a decent pullback to support. As I believe it will be higher in 6 months time and even higher in 12 months time.

PROFITS

Took some profits on AMT. Still very short though.

Dollar vs DOW

Take a look at the chart, it shows performance of U.S. Dollar index futures vs DOW in the bottom pane. The chart itself is of the dollar index. As dollar declines market moved up and as the dollar has recently showed strength the market has moved down. Notice the cross over in the bottom pane. Here is your leading indicator for stock market direction.

Quote

What happened to making mistakes and paying for them, so next time you do not repeat the mistake. I believe as long as I learn I will make mistakes. Just does not seem anyone in D.C. has had to go through the trials and tribulations to learn these lessons. I will leave you with a quote that hits home to me regarding the current situation.

Ecclesiastes 3:1-8:

To everything there is a season,
a time for every purpose under the sun.
A time to be born and a time to die;
a time to plant and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
a time to kill and a time to heal ...
a time to weep and a time to laugh;
a time to mourn and a time to dance ...
a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing;
a time to lose and a time to seek;
a time to rend and a time to sew;
a time to keep silent and a time to speak;
a time to love and a time to hate;
a time for war and a time for peace.

Just Saying

We can get a Dow Theory buy signal if the Dow and Transportation index can both rally and close above their Jan 6 closing prices. If that were to happen I would anticipate a new bull market is in the making 6-9 months from that signal, when ever that did occur.
Just saying something to be looking for in the future.

PFF

This ETF is one worth watching for intermediate term bounces and for the eventual bottom in the indices. This should be viewed as to the health of speculation and aversion to risk in the market place, it is the S&P preferred stock index.

SPY Long Term Chart

Firstly, I hear so much chatter of a bottom being made, so lets have a look at SPY monthly chart. I like this chart because it filters out all the noise and day to day volatility.
Notice the red demarcation lines. Very reliable signal it nailed the top of the last bull and the bottom of the last bear. Will it happen again? I believe yes, history is always repeated to a certain degree. Until it proves me wrong I will stick with it. Anyhow look at the x's on the chart this is where a cross over happened for my moving averages. Notice the height of the xover down on the chart and look at current xover down. Third graders could tell you the direction in the future months, to me its screaming LOWER. Are we due for a bounce? yes and it will be a prime opportunity to sell your longs or add short's if your adamant to hold on to your longs or be completely short with a minimal hedge for protection in case Osama Bin Laden is killed or captured. Also the last bear lasted 31 months before the xover up occurred. Where are we currently at 13 months. I believe this recession will be far more severe than the tech bubble, so plainly I do not think 13 months is going to do it. Yet another piece to the no bottom puzzle.
Also look to the oscillators and look at the green lines, notice where we are at in the current cycle compared to the last cycle.
Finally, bottoms are a function of price and time and have symmetry in many aspects. Have either criteria been met. I say no but we are closer to meeting that criteria for price as far as the time criteria it has just that time and hopefully you can see the symmetry I tried to show.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE. HAVING TECHNICAL ISSUES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON.

From the beginning

The first of many posts.